The Hot Stove season is upon us, and
naturally, all the focus has shifted to the 2015-16 free-agent class.
That's understandable. There is some serious talent available on the
open market this offseason.
But it's still worth looking ahead to the 2016-17 free-agent group
for one very important reason: Next year's free agents are often this
year's trade bait. Why? Because under the rules of the Collective
Bargaining Agreement, players acquired before Opening Day can be given a
qualifying offer the following offseason, which means clubs can recoup a
Draft pick if the player signs elsewhere. (Players traded during the
season cannot be given qualifying offers.)
Since the qualifying offer was put into
effect three years ago, we've seen 44 players traded in the offseason
before free agency, an average of more than 14 per year. Last offseason
was particularly active, with Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes and Jeff Samardzija
among the high-profile players to be dealt a year before free agency.
Of course, not every player entering the final year of his deal is a
trade candidate. Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre isn't going anywhere. Neither is Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen or Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg. They're all simply too valuable to their teams in the coming season. Deep free agent class for 2016
MLB.com analyst Jim Duquette looks at which free agents will set the market throughout the upcoming offseason
But there are quite a few players whose contract status makes them
prime candidates to be dealt this offseason. With that in mind, here are
10 potential trade chips whose current deals have one guaranteed year
left: HITTERS Josh Reddick, RF, A's
Reddick seems like an obvious trade candidate, given the team he plays
for. The A's are no stranger to wheeling and dealing, and they're
looking to build for the future at this point, after a 68-94 finish.
Reddick regained his power stroke last season, hitting 20 homers for the
first time since 2012. At 28, he's a perfect candidate for a team in
search of a quality corner outfielder, both offensively and defensively. MLB Tonight: Free Agents
The guys on MLB Tonight discuss offseason free agents
Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Pirates
One of the most enigmatic hitters in baseball, Alvarez can flat-out mash
when he's hot. But his defense is suspect, and the Pirates, who could
be in search of pitching help, might be willing to part ways with
Alvarez for a decent return. If they do, however, they'd need to fill
the void left in their lineup with a power bat. Power is scarce, so
Alvarez has trade value. Statcast: Alvarez's huge homer
10/4/15: Statcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle, projected hang time and distance of Pedro Alvarez's mammoth home run
Aaron Hill, 2B/3B, D-backs
The D-backs have the makings of a very bright future offensively with A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt
anchoring the lineup. That said, contending in 2016 may be a stretch,
and flipping Hill for a young pitcher or two would fit nicely into
Arizona's rebuilding model, giving youngsters Chris Owings and Jake Lamb more playing time at second and third, respectively. Yost, Moore on Gordon's future
Royals
manager Ned Yost and GM Dayton Moore discuss Alex Gordon's status as a
free agent and the potential negotiations going forward
Cameron Maybin, CF, Braves
There aren't many readily available center fielders, so Maybin figures
to be a prime candidate to be dealt from a Braves team that's looking to
rebuild. According to both his ultimate zone rating and defensive runs
saved statistics, Maybin was below average defensively in 2015, but not
dreadful, and he still presents a viable option for reaching base and
wreaking havoc on the basepaths. Maybin is owed $8 million in 2016 and
has a team option for $9 million in '17. Maybin steals second base
10/1/15: Cameron Maybin steals second base and advances to third on a throwing error by Wilson Ramos
Mark Trumbo, 1B, Mariners
Trumbo's inability to reach base consistently has been well documented.
But he's still a reliable power threat who slugged .449 last season. For
teams in search of some pop in the five or six spots in a lineup,
Trumbo -- entering his last year of arbitration eligibility -- is an
affordable option. Martin Prado, 3B, Marlins
The Yankees dealt Prado to the Marlins last offseason and got younger, acquiring Nathan Eovaldi
in return. Now, Miami could be looking to do the same. Prado should
fetch a decent return, following a season in which he batted
.288/.338/.394 and played superb defense at third base. There figure to
be plenty of teams in the market for a versatile infielder who can be
plugged into the top part of a lineup. PITCHERS Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
As mentioned earlier, the Reds are looking to get younger, and with that
in mind, it wouldn't seem prudent to hold onto Chapman. He's clearly a
generational talent at closer, but great closers are useful only when
they have leads to protect. With one year remaining on Chapman's deal,
Cincinnati might be best served to bring in some young talent, with
plenty of contenders in the market for a closer. Chapman closes the door
10/3/15:
Aroldis Chapman gets Francisco Cervelli to fly out to center field to
save the Reds' 3-1 win and snap their 13-game losing streak
Andrew Cashner, RHP, Padres
Cashner struggled in 2015, but he also received some awful luck behind
him, allowing a league-high 22 unearned runs. That doesn't excuse the
4.34 ERA, but he pitched some unnecessarily long innings, which taxed
his arm. Anyway, the Padres need to bolster their farm system, and
Cashner, whose fastball sits 95-96 mph, should fetch a solid return in
that regard. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
The Rays have a history of dealing pitchers on expiring contracts, and
Moore could become the latest. He's obviously not as high profile as,
say, David Price,
but Moore is a capable big league starter when healthy. (Unfortunately,
the "when healthy" part has been an issue.) Moore has club options for
2017-19, and if he returns to form, those options are relatively team
friendly. That fact could net Tampa Bay a bigger return than you'd
expect for a pitcher who has made only 14 starts in the past two
seasons. Travis Wood, LHP, Cubs
Wood has proven himself capable as both a starter and a reliever, and he
could be a nice addition for any team in search of a versatile
left-hander. The Cubs don't exactly need to get younger, but they could
be in search of some help at the back end of their bullpen, and if they
acquire another starter in free agency -- which many expect them to do
-- Wood could become somewhat expendable. Wood's great relief outing
10/18/15:
Travis Wood does not surrender a hit and strikes out four of the six
batters he faces over two scoreless innings in relief
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Nationals
Don't be surprised if the Nats go for a complete overhaul within their
pen. Papelbon's midseason arrival didn't go so well, and it's easy to
see why Washington might want to move him after his scuffle with Bryce Harper. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
Storen gave up his closer role when Papelbon arrived, and his confidence
seemed to take a severe hit as a result. (Storen had a 1.89 ERA in the
first half but a 5.82 ERA after the All-Star break.) It's been a trying
couple of seasons for Storen in D.C., and a change of scenery might do
him some good. After all, it's clear he has the stuff to be a top-tier
Major League closer.
AJ Cassavell is a reporter for MLB.com. Follow him on Twitter @ajcassavell. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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